Decision making
Manage your biases, think more clearly
When bias narrows your decision, widen the futures, the objectives, and the options; protect your judgment with estimate ranges and triggers.
Your learning route
The program order
Complete the programs in order to finish the route. Each one brings short lessons, applied practice and a realistic business case together.
Plus and Pro members can create a verifiable Stratify certificate when the route is complete.
- Program 01
Diagnose the bias
Foundational: you learn why you cannot see the flaws in your own judgment and why quality control has to move to the process level. By the end of this program you can review the process behind a team's recommendation with nine check questions, call self-interest, saliency, the halo effect, anchoring, and sunk costs by name, and pick the remedy that works for each defect.
- You cannot fix an error you cannot see
- The hope is in the process
- Three questions to ask yourself
Apply it: Closing case: auditing the proposal
5 lessons · ≈3 hours
- Program 02
Widen your futures, objectives, and options
Intermediate: you see how the urge for closure narrows thinking on three fronts at once. By the end of this program you can open a forecast into three separate estimates backed by a premortem, widen your list of objectives by seeking advice, and multiply your options with the vanishing options test before comparing them side by side.
- The urge for closure narrows thinking
- Four ways to open the range
- Your goal list is shorter than you think
Apply it: Closing case: three by three by three
5 lessons · ≈3 hours
- Program 03
Protect decision quality with triggers
Advanced: you learn how emotional investment distorts benefits and risks, and why awareness alone is not enough. By the end of this program you can choose between a trip wire and a decision point, break the base case's optimism with an outside view, make the worst case bad enough with a premortem, and justify who runs decision quality control.
- Motivated bias is the stubbornest kind
- Trip wire or decision point?
- Three evaluation questions
Apply it: Closing case: protecting the decision over time
5 lessons · ≈3 hours