Decision making
Understand how individuals decide
Tell apart the three schools of thought behind a decision: the analysis that breaks it into steps, the bias research that shows where judgment slips, and the conditions where simple rules work. Know which one to reach for and when.
Your learning route
The program order
Complete the programs in order to finish the route. Each one brings short lessons, applied practice and a realistic business case together.
Plus and Pro members can create a verifiable Stratify certificate when the route is complete.
- Program 01
Tell the decision schools apart
Foundational: you learn where the analytic approach that breaks a decision into steps came from and how expected utility is calculated. By the end of this program you can update a probability with Bayes' rule when new evidence arrives, tell a model's claim to describe the mind from its claim to predict behavior, and name shortcuts such as availability and the endowment effect in your own estimates.
- From war to decision analysis
- Updating probabilities
- Does the model predict or describe?
Apply it: Closing case: using the evidence fully
5 lessons · ≈3 hours
- Program 02
Recognize when intuition works
Intermediate: you learn what bounded rationality means and under which conditions simple rules beat complex models. By the end of this program you can test whether expert intuition holds in a field using the conditions of a predictable environment and an opportunity to learn, combine decision analysis, bias control, and simple rules as complements on the same decision, and match your analysis investment to the size of the decision.
- Bounded minds and good enough
- When does a simple rule win?
- The condition for reliable intuition
Apply it: Closing case: writing the limits of intuition
5 lessons · ≈3 hours